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Hurricane Fiona was strengthening steadily on Monday night, but another tropical wave way out in the central Atlantic has caught the attention of some weather watchers.
The National Hurricane Center has given the disturbance only a 30 percent chance of development over the next five days (up from 20 percent this afternoon), but some are a bit uneasy about its development and its possible track.
Some forecast models take the system through the southern Windward Islands, south of where Hurricane Fiona moved through, and into the southern Caribbean. Systems that take that route can sometimes end up in the Gulf of Mexico, through that outcome is very, very far from certain this far out.
The hurricane center put the disturbance on the board on Monday (see the map at the top of this post).
And long-range forecast models on Monday also got hurricane watchers talking:
It goes without saying (but it still will be said) that a lot can change this far out, and a storm in the Gulf next week is not a foregone conclusion at all.
But it is a heads up to start paying attention, just in case, and make sure you are prepared in case the worst happens, with this disturbance or another one down the road.
The hurricane center said on Monday that the tropical wave in question was located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands.
It was disorganized but could gradually develop this week as it tracks to the west and approaches the Windward Islands near the end of the week.
It is expected to be in the eastern Caribbean by the weekend.
The wave has a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next five days.
The Gulf of Mexico has been fairly quiet in 2022, but September usually marks the peak of the hurricane season for the Atlantic.
Besides Hurricane Fiona there is only one other system being watched, far to the north in the central Atlantic.
The hurricane center on Monday night raised its chances of development to 40 percent (from 30 percent) and said it could become a short-lived tropical depression before conditions become less favorable later this week. It is expected to move in the opposite direction from the U.S.
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.
The tropical wave denoted with the yellow “x” at the bottom of the image is the one generating speculation about its long-term track.
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